February 11, 2026 at 6:30 PM
Why Russia’s Export Failures Matter For India
In 2022, Vasabjit Banerjee and Benjamin Tkach wrote, “After Ukraine, Where Will India Buy Its Weapons,” where they explore India’s various defense systems acquisition relationships. Four years later, amid changing...
In 2022, Vasabjit Banerjee and Benjamin Tkach wrote, “After Ukraine, Where Will India Buy Its Weapons,” where they explore India’s various defense systems acquisition relationships. Four years later, amid changing geopolitical dynamics and Russia’s ongoing war, we asked them to revisit their arguments.Image: Creative Commons, Flickr user cell105In your 2022 article, “After Ukraine, Where Will India Buy Its Weapons?,” you argued Russia was struggling to meet its weapons export commitments due to a buildup of debt, sanctions, and battlefield losses. In 2026, has Russia’s position changed from strained to structurally incapable as an exporter, or is it still scraping by?
We see evidence that Russia’s defense industrial base continues to weaken. Russia’s overall manufacturing capacity is declining according to a recent Center for Strategic and International Studies report due to a shortage of skilled labor, as a result of migration and war, and declining investments. The Russian war economy now accounts for approximately 7 percent of GDP based on Stockholm International Peace Research Institute data and approximately 32 percent of the 2025 total federal budget.