February 11, 2026 at 10:43 AM
Estonian spies believe Europe’s collective deterrence push is working
Russia’s military-industrial complex, even if strained by sanctions, has continued to grow significantly, the Estonian intelligence assessment notes.
Estonian soldiers look out from the top of a tank on the Tapa range in Estonia. (Ben Birchall/PA Images via Getty Images)MILAN — Russia is not expected to attack any NATO member states in the next two years, a testament, in part, to European efforts to quickly boost their defenses in the last few years, the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service concluded in a report this week.But Moscow’s re-organization of its military around drones and significant ammunition production signals that the regime is preparing for future large-scale conflicts, according to Estonian analysts.The annual assessment highlighted that while there is no cause for panic, Moscow is rapidly building its military capabilities to counter European security improvements.“Russia has no intention of militarily attacking Estonia or any other NATO state in 2026 – we are likely to reach a similar assessment next year, because Tallinn and Europe have taken steps to compel the Kremlin to calculate very carefully what, if anything, it can risk, attempting,” the report said.The Baltic state’s risk analysis was less alarming than warnings issued by NATO chief Mark Rutte and other European leaders in 2025 about a possible Russian attack in the near future.Russia’s military-industrial complex, even if strained by sanctions, has continued to grow significantly, the Estonian report notes. Since 2021, the country’s artillery ammunition production has increased seventeen-fold, from a total output of 400,000 to seven million shells, mortar rounds, and rockets.Companies in 2025 cranked out an estimated 3.4 million artillery projectiles, 800,000 million tank and infantry fighting vehicle ammunition, 2.3 million mortar rounds, and 500,000 million rockets for multiple-launch rocket systems.Estonia’s intelligence branch estimated that the procurement cost was approximately 1 trillion rubles ($12.6 billion) last year, which remains low in comparison to ammunition production in Western nations.“For example, an older 152mm shell model costs less (about €1,050, or $1,300) in state procurement, which is several times cheaper than similar 155mm rounds produced in Western countries,” the report noted.
In addition, since 2023, Moscow has bought up to 7 million shells from its proxies, including Iran and North Korea.Drones everywhereOne trend highlighted in the Estonian report is how Russia is increasingly adapting its armed forces for unmanned warfare.