February 9, 2026 at 9:22 PM
US Air Force needs 500 next-gen fighters, bombers to beat China, think tank says
"No more ‘divest to invest,’” aviation expert Heather Penney said, arguing that the Air Force needs to dramatically boost its F-47 and B-21 acquisition.
The U.S. Air Force must buy at least 500 sixth-generation fighters and bombers — more than it already plans — to be able to prevail in a war against China, the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies said Monday.In its policy paper, “Strategic Attack: Maintaining the Air Force’s Capacity to Deny Enemy Sanctuaries,” experts from the Mitchell Institute argue that the Air Force needs at least 300 next-generation F-47 fighters and at least 200 B-21 Raider stealth bombers to counter China. The Air Force has previously signaled it plans to buy at least 185 F-47s from Boeing and at least 100 Northrop Grumman-made B-21s.In an online discussion about the paper, former F-16 pilot and Mitchell Institute director of research Heather Penney warned that past U.S.
wars such as Korea and Vietnam, and Ukraine’s current war against Russia’s invasion, have showed that militaries who can’t or won’t hit enemy bases and other sanctuaries from the air risk falling into grueling wars of attrition, akin to trench warfare.And without a significantly boosted combat fleet able to project long-range air power in force, Penney said, the United States could find itself in a similar danger against China.“China is deliberately building the capabilities and the posture to effectively make the entire western Pacific their sanctuary,” Penney said. “But we know from history that allowing an adversary that kind of sanctuary allows them to win, and it’s a recipe for our own defeat.”The Air Force has carried out recent strike operations such as Midnight Hammer, which bombed Iran’s nuclear sites, exceptionally well.But Midnight Hammer employed the service’s entire fleet of available B-2 Spirit stealth bombers, Penney said, some in the strike portion of the operation and some as decoys. And if Iran shot down any of those B-2s, Penney said, the Air Force couldn’t replace them — nor could the Air Force carry out a similar mission the next day if a second strike was needed.And if the U.S.